My research for my master's thesis centered on the intersection of foreign aid and immigration -- specifically, on the question of whether foreign aid has an impact on international migrant flows. Various political scientists and economists have at times considered this question, but most never have given it much serious consideration. Unlike these scholars, I apparently was curious enough about this topic to dedicate months of research, data collection, and analysis to answering it (either that or I didn't have much of a life...).
Findings
My analysis ultimately showed that when wealthy countries increase official development aid (ODA) sent to a given developing country in a given year, the result is an increase in immigration from said developing country the following year. This finding held true, even when controlling for several factors that consistently have been shown to have an impact on migrant inflows. [Note: The analysis included data from 1994 to 2011.]
Below is a coefficient plot displaying the effect of various factors on immigration from 130 ODA recipient countries to 18 ODA donor countries. The donors are all members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), while the aid recipients are non-members.
The Impact of the Control Variables
It should come as little surprise that previous migrant inflows positively predict future inflows, as does an increase in the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the donor country. Additionally, more severe levels of civil conflict in the aid receiving country is also associated with greater immigration (people apparently don't care to stick around when their society is less than civil -- go figure!).
A shared colonial past between donor and recipient (i.e., the recipient was either a former colony of the donor or both were former colonies of the same country) and a common language also have a positive effect on immigration.
Meanwhile, greater distance between donor and recipient and more restrictive immigration policies in the donor result in less immigration. A larger donor population is also associated with less immigration.
The political regime of the recipient apparently had no statistically significant effect on immigration.
The Impact of Aid
Even when controlling for the push and pull of each of the above factors, the impact of aid on immigration, although not substantial in comparison to some of the other factors, was nevertheless positive and statistically significant. The scatter plot below further shows a noticeable pattern in the relationship between aid and immigration.
Implications
Findings
My analysis ultimately showed that when wealthy countries increase official development aid (ODA) sent to a given developing country in a given year, the result is an increase in immigration from said developing country the following year. This finding held true, even when controlling for several factors that consistently have been shown to have an impact on migrant inflows. [Note: The analysis included data from 1994 to 2011.]
Below is a coefficient plot displaying the effect of various factors on immigration from 130 ODA recipient countries to 18 ODA donor countries. The donors are all members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), while the aid recipients are non-members.
The Impact of the Control Variables
It should come as little surprise that previous migrant inflows positively predict future inflows, as does an increase in the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the donor country. Additionally, more severe levels of civil conflict in the aid receiving country is also associated with greater immigration (people apparently don't care to stick around when their society is less than civil -- go figure!).
A shared colonial past between donor and recipient (i.e., the recipient was either a former colony of the donor or both were former colonies of the same country) and a common language also have a positive effect on immigration.
Meanwhile, greater distance between donor and recipient and more restrictive immigration policies in the donor result in less immigration. A larger donor population is also associated with less immigration.
The political regime of the recipient apparently had no statistically significant effect on immigration.
The Impact of Aid
Even when controlling for the push and pull of each of the above factors, the impact of aid on immigration, although not substantial in comparison to some of the other factors, was nevertheless positive and statistically significant. The scatter plot below further shows a noticeable pattern in the relationship between aid and immigration.
Implications
What these results ultimately mean is unclear -- much more research needs to be done to determine the real world significance of this analysis -- but these findings do contribute something new to the literature on aid and immigration, and they offer something useful to policymakers, many of whom strategically use aid as a means for curbing immigration. According to my findings, foreign aid clearly does not serve its intended purpose.
This failure may be due, in part, to inefficient investment of aid on the part of recipients, who all-too-often will pull their own funds away from projects or services when incoming aid will cover the cost (a scenario that can lead to a given project receiving comparatively little more funding than it did prior to the allocation of aid).
An increase in aid further may lead, inadvertently, to the donor country being perceived as a more attractive destination by would-be migrants in the aid receiving country. Thus, the failure of aid, on the one hand, to sufficiently ameliorate economic or societal woes in the aid receiver, and, on the other hand, the possibility that aid makes the donor country appear like a wealthier, more attractive place to live (a country with the resources to give aid to another country surely must be doing economically well itself, right?) may potentially explain these findings. Of course, this hypothesis, though supported by my analysis, is nevertheless not a something I would be willing to bet my life on just yet.
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