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The Multiple Voices of Donald Trump

@POTUS and @realDonaldTrump -- the voice of the Trump administration and the voice of Trump himself. Is their a difference between the two? And, if so, what characterizes that difference?

The first question can be answered, quite easily, in the affirmative. The answer to the second question is, as the results from an analysis of @POTUS vs. @realDonaldTrump Tweets reveals, dependent on how one defines "difference."

The Data
The results found via the analysis discussed below are based off of a growing dataset composed of @POTUS and @realDonaldTrump Tweets. The earliest Tweets in the data date to February 16, 2017 with the most recent dated to March 6, 2017. [Note: the program I've been using to collect Tweets reports the time per Tweet several hours in advance of eastern standard time, so the most recent Tweet in the dataset is technically dated to March 7.]

The Analysis
I used several methods of text analysis to compare @POTUS to @realDonaldTrump Tweets. These include sentiment analysis using the NRC Emotion Lexicon (a growing favorite of mine) and term frequency - inverse document frequency (tf-idf). The former allows for inference of positive vs. negative sentiment in text, while the latter allows for the identification of top words per a given corpus of data vs. another corpus, adjusted for the word's uniqueness. Both of these methods permit making an assessment of quantifiable similarities and differences between @POTUS (official Twitter account of the Trump Administration) and @realDonaldTrump (the personal account of Donald Trump) Tweets.

Findings
Tweets over Time
Over the timeframe included in the analysis, there is, aside from a clear spike in @POTUS Tweets around the time of Trump's address to a joint session of Congress, a seemingly random distribution of Tweets from February 16 to now.



Also, it appears that, while there are slightly more Tweets from @POTUS (97), @realDonaldTrump is active daily, while @POTUS is occasionally inactive during certain days.


Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment valence (the positive vs. negative sentiment score per Tweet) ranged from as high as 5 to as low as -3, with the mean sentiment hovering just slightly above zero at 0.51.

The below figure displays the sentiment per Tweet by date and by whether it was Tweeted by @POTUS (blue) or @realDonaldTrump (red).



A quick glance at the above figure doesn't suggest an overt difference in average sentiment per account. And, in fact, a Welch two-sample T-test confirms that there is not a statistically significant difference in mean sentiment per @POTUS vs. @realDonaldTrump. There is a slightly higher average sentiment per @POTUS Tweets, but, at this point, it's not certain whether this difference is a meaningful one.


tf-idf Words
While the above analysis fails to find much of a difference in positive vs. negative sentiment between Twitter accounts, tf-idf reveals some telling differences in word usage per account. The below figure displays the top tf-idf words per @POTUS Tweet.



Meanwhile, the below figure displays top tf-idf words per @realDonaldTrump Tweet.



While it's still early in this analysis to make any hard inferences regarding differences in @POTUS vs. @realDonaldTrump Tweets, what seems most clear, at least at face value, is that the latter appears to uniquely focus on (for lack of a better phrase) palace intrigue ("russia," "leaking," "classified") and criticism ("obama," "failing," "nytimes"). Meanwhile, the former appears to focus more on patriotism ("americanspirit"), mentions of individuals in the administration, policy ("repealandreplace"), and promotion ("cpac2017"). Thus, while one face of the Trump Administration is portrayed on social media via @POTUS, @realDonaldTrump continues to serve as the unique online presence of Donald Trump, apart from the administration.

Why Care?
Differences in the Twitter activity of @POTUS and @realDonaldTrump reveal a lot about divergences in voice between Trump himself and that of the Trump Administration (staffers, etc.). This difference matters because, while 15.7 million people currently follow @POTUS, 25.7 million follow @realDonaldTrump. Whichever account people take more seriously as the true representation of the administration, its positions, its priorities, its goals, and its trajectory matters. Whether we focus on palace intrigue or substantive policy discussion may depend upon which voice (@POTUS or @realDonaldTrump) about which we are more concerned.

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